Bitcoin Market Faces New Challenges and Opportunities After FOMC Rate Cut, Glassnode Reports

Following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates, the Bitcoin market has experienced a surge in volatility, driven largely by speculative activity in the derivatives market. An in-depth analysis from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, released on September 18, breaks down the market dynamics surrounding the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, providing key insights into current and future trends. Meanwhile, the resulting rally in Bitcoin has had a significant impact on the stocks of companies holding the asset on their balance sheets.

Market Reacts to Federal Reserve’s Decision

On September 17, the Federal Reserve Board announced a 0.25 percentage point cut in its key policy rate. In the days leading up to the meeting, the Bitcoin market gained momentum on the widespread expectation of a rate cut. This gradual upward trend continued after the decision was confirmed. Before this recent push, Bitcoin had maintained stability around the $107,800 level through mid-September, a price that aligned with the cost basis for many short-term holders. According to Glassnode’s report, spot markets saw notable selling pressure in the days just before the FOMC announcement, with the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) on major exchanges like Coinbase and Binance falling below its 90-day average.

Derivatives Market Drives Pre-FOMC Rally

In stark contrast to the spot market, the perpetual futures market painted a different picture. The CVD for futures recovered from a period of extreme selling pressure to a state of equilibrium. Glassnode analysts suggest this indicates that strong buy orders effectively absorbed the selling pressure from late August until the FOMC meeting. This activity points to speculators building up positions in anticipation of a favorable rate cut announcement, which ultimately helped fuel the price increase. Given the significant role of the derivatives market in shaping current trends, Glassnode identifies perpetual futures Open Interest (OI) as a more accurate barometer of short-term market sentiment.

Volatility Leads to Widespread Liquidations

The futures market has become increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic events, a trend highlighted by recent volatility. Open Interest peaked for the current cycle on September 13 at approximately 395,000 BTC but has since stabilized in the 378,000 to 384,000 BTC range following the FOMC meeting. This decrease was the result of forced liquidations of leveraged traders’ positions as volatility spiked. A short squeeze between September 13 and 17 further accelerated the price run-up. However, a subsequent price correction to $115,000 after the rate cut announcement triggered a massive liquidation of high-leverage long positions, wiping out 62% of the long side.

MicroStrategy Stock Surges Alongside Bitcoin

The upward momentum in Bitcoin, which is now approaching a one-month high of $118,000, has directly benefited related equities. Shares of MicroStrategy saw a significant 6% jump on September 18, bouncing off a key support line previously tested in September 2024 and April 2025. The stock is now trading just above $350 and is closing in on its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $355. This widely-watched technical indicator, which smooths out price action over the last 200 trading days, is often viewed by traders as a crucial marker of the long-term trend. Year-to-date, MicroStrategy stock has gained 18%, while Bitcoin has risen 22%. Bitcoin’s performance in September, with a gain of over 8%, puts it on pace for its best September since at least 2013.

However, the picture is not universally positive for all companies with corporate Bitcoin treasuries. While MicroStrategy rides the wave, others continue to face significant headwinds. Japan’s Metaplanet, for example, saw its stock fall by 10% on September 18 and is now trading nearly 75% below its all-time high.